Power Semiconductors (SiC & GaN) — Strategy

Where Power Semiconductors (SiC & GaN) is heading over the next 12 months, grounded in product-axis evidence and verbatim demand from the last 90 days. The judgment column is the engine's read — operators verify and refine.

Product trajectories

GaN Power FETs (discrete) — discrete power transistor ↗ rising

Opportunity: Yole projects discrete GaN power devices ~$2B by 2029 at ~46% CAGR (9df10597) and three IDMs (Infineon/Renesas/TI) bought or in-housed GaN since 2023 — clear strategic land grab.

GaN FETs are the topic's highest-conviction growth product: capacity moves and M&A are concentrating supply into Infineon/Renesas/TI alongside pure-plays Navitas/EPC/Innoscience; the bottleneck is winning a 48V/datacenter socket before commoditization.

SiC Power Modules — power module ↗ rising

Opportunity: Massive multi-year SiC LTSA backlogs (onsemi >$11B, Wolfspeed ~$8B pipeline) anchored by EV traction + aero electrification — yet Wolfspeed entered Chapter 11 and module supply consolidating.

SiC power modules remain the topic's volume engine: every IDM has booked auto LTSA capacity, but Wolfspeed's Ch.11 restructuring + Tesla's 75%-less-SiC reset has shaken the demand curve and reshuffled who actually ships modules.

800V HVDC Data Center Power Architecture — rack power architecture ↗ rising

Opportunity: NVIDIA's GTC 2025 800V HVDC spec (2a671ace) reframes rack power around SiC HVDC + GaN POL — and retail/investor demand explicitly asks where the AI power/infrastructure gap gets filled (973ffffa).

800V HVDC is the single hottest near-term socket inside power-semi: NVIDIA defined the architecture, Infineon is hiring AI-datacenter BD, EPC has a part already aimed at the 48V intermediate — but no one has the full reference design wrapped up yet.

GaN Power Supplies (consumer chargers / PSUs) — AC-DC power supply / charger ↗ rising

Opportunity: Discussion shows clear consumer demand pull for GaN beyond laptops (desktop ATX, hobbyist HDPlex, 'why isn't this GaN?' on Apple PSUs) — but Navitas Q1 2025 print (66784c9d) confirms the existing mobile-charger socket has saturated/contracted.

Consumer GaN charger is the topic's cautionary tale: socket exists and users want it, but mobile-charger ASP/volume collapse has knocked the pure-play (Navitas) ~39% YoY — next leg requires premium desktop/ATX or PD-laptop adoption, not phones.

SiC Traction Inverter (EV) — EV inverter module/system → steady

Opportunity: EV traction inverter is still the largest SiC TAM line, but Tesla's 75%-less-SiC statement (d4efa8ee) + Infineon FY24 SiC miss (2c763dee) show the demand curve resetting around hybrid Si+SiC topologies and lower SiC content per car.

SiC inverter remains anchor demand (Honda 0 Series with Renesas, Wolfspeed auto >60% pipeline) but the topic's open question is per-car SiC content: bull case if 800V mass-market 2026 cycle hits, bear case if OEMs follow Tesla's '75% less SiC' template.

What the market is asking (last 90d)

• What to add for the AI power/infrastructure gap, and should I drop DXJ?
• The 2026 YTD winners are exposing the hidden map of the AI bottlenecks.

See the Products and Hiring modules for the full landscape and who's investing in which direction.