Indices
Last updated: · weekly buckets · refreshed daily
Proprietary measurements for the AI-infrastructure stack — per-layer activity (hiring + business signals) and end-user demand pressure, tracked week over week from our own signal history.
How it works
- Layer Activity (L1–L8)
- — weekly count of
business_signals+talent_signalsfor companies whosecanonical_companies.primary_layermatches the layer. Captures real hiring + announced deals; not press-release noise. - Commitment (green) vs Attention (blue)
- — V20.48 split. Commitment = A1 talent + A4 capital + A5 orders (real money + hires). Attention = A2 discussion + A3 product (mentions + launches). Divergence (commitment − attention) separates real money from talk: positive means real money outpaces discussion; negative means hype is concentrated.
- Demand Pressure
- — weekly count of
demand_signalsacross all topics (forum + question + procurement-style language extracted from collectors). End-user intent, not vendor marketing. - Forward read (forecast)
- — V20.48 §3 pooled lagged cross-correlation: leading axes (A2 + demand) → lagging proxy (A3 product launches), best lag k ∈ 1–6 weeks. Marked hypothesis until ≥4/5 sample-out scored runs confirm. No named-stock forecasts on this page; named companies appear only as present-tense evidence (e.g. “Coherent hiring”) never as forward calls.
- Window
- — ISO weeks (Monday start), UTC. Sparklines show the last 12 weeks. Delta = latest week − prior week.
- Refresh
- — recomputed every Monday 00:00 UTC by the
/cron/weekly-indicescron, after the V19 collectors run. Latest snapshot upserts intoindices; full history accumulates inindex_points; forecasts append intoforecast_runs.
L1 Energy & DC Infra Activity
L1Weekly hiring + business signal volume across energy & dc physical infrastructure companies — power generation, electrical equipment, cooling, construction, dc reits, storage & microgrids.
13▼ -4wk of 2026-07-13commit 2.0att 1.0L1: commitment 2.0 (-2.0 wow) ≈ attention 1.0 (-252.0 wow) — talk and money moving together.
Forward read · hypothesis
L1 (layer): leading axes (A2 discussion + demand) averaged 0.3 per week recently. Pooled cross-correlation suggests product launch count tracks ~4 weeks behind (β=-0.0009, r=-0.14, n=22; fits loosely). Direction: flat. Projection ≈ 0.00 (last actual: 0). Confidence 2% — held as hypothesis until ≥4/5 sample-out scored runs confirm.
See ranked L1 suppliers →Q: Is L1 Energy & DC Infra Activity activity expected to keep moving in the next 4 weeks?
A: Projection points roughly flat over the next 4 weeks at 2% confidence (hypothesis — sample-out hit-rate not yet established). Today's commitment 2.0 vs attention 1.0 (week of 2026-07-13). Industry-research read — no buy/sell call.
L2 Optical & Networking Activity
L2Weekly hiring + business signal volume across optical & networking companies — 800g/1.6t optics, cpo & silicon photonics, infiniband vs ethernet, coherent dci, aec & retimers.
8▼ -34wk of 2026-07-20commit 8.0att 1.0L2: commitment 8.0 (-34.0 wow) > attention 1.0 (±0.0 wow) — real money + hires outpacing discussion.
Hiring focus (21d): other (249)
Forward read · hypothesis
L2 (layer): leading axes (A2 discussion + demand) averaged 0.5 per week recently. Pooled cross-correlation suggests product launch count tracks ~4 weeks behind (β=-0.0031, r=-0.23, n=22; fits loosely). Direction: flat. Projection ≈ -0.00 (last actual: 0). Confidence 5% — held as hypothesis until ≥4/5 sample-out scored runs confirm.
See ranked L2 suppliers →Q: Is L2 Optical & Networking Activity activity expected to keep moving in the next 4 weeks?
A: Projection points roughly flat over the next 4 weeks at 5% confidence (hypothesis — sample-out hit-rate not yet established). Today's commitment 8.0 vs attention 1.0 (week of 2026-07-20). Industry-research read — no buy/sell call.
L3 HBM & Packaging Activity
L3Weekly hiring + business signal volume across hbm & advanced packaging companies — hbm & dram, cxl, cowos / soic, glass substrates.
3▼ -3wk of 2026-07-13commit 2.0att 80.0L3: attention 80.0 (+71.0 wow) > commitment 2.0 (-3.0 wow) — hype concentrated, commitment still light.
Forward read · hypothesis
L3 (layer): leading axes (A2 discussion + demand) averaged 0.0 per week recently. Pooled cross-correlation suggests product launch count tracks ~5 weeks behind (β=-0.0042, r=-0.11, n=21; fits loosely). Direction: flat. Projection ≈ 0.00 (last actual: 0). Confidence 1% — held as hypothesis until ≥4/5 sample-out scored runs confirm.
See ranked L3 suppliers →Q: Is L3 HBM & Packaging Activity activity expected to keep moving in the next 5 weeks?
A: Projection points roughly flat over the next 5 weeks at 1% confidence (hypothesis — sample-out hit-rate not yet established). Today's commitment 2.0 vs attention 80.0 (week of 2026-07-13). Industry-research read — no buy/sell call.
L4 Chips Activity
L4Weekly hiring + business signal volume across chips companies — gpus, custom asics, semicap, foundry, eda & ip, power semiconductors.
7▼ -13wk of 2026-07-13commit 4.0att 10.0L4: attention 10.0 (-101.0 wow) > commitment 4.0 (+2.0 wow) — hype concentrated, commitment still light.
Hiring focus (21d): other (111)
Forward read · hypothesis
L4 (layer): leading axes (A2 discussion + demand) averaged 2.5 per week recently. Pooled cross-correlation suggests product launch count tracks ~3 weeks behind (β=-0.0057, r=-0.17, n=23; fits loosely). Direction: flat. Projection ≈ -0.01 (last actual: 0). Confidence 3% — held as hypothesis until ≥4/5 sample-out scored runs confirm.
See ranked L4 suppliers →Q: Is L4 Chips Activity activity expected to keep moving in the next 3 weeks?
A: Projection points roughly flat over the next 3 weeks at 3% confidence (hypothesis — sample-out hit-rate not yet established). Today's commitment 4.0 vs attention 10.0 (week of 2026-07-13). Industry-research read — no buy/sell call.
L5 Training & Inference Activity
L5Weekly hiring + business signal volume across training & inference companies — gpu cloud & neocloud, inference serving, training-data services, cluster storage, server & rack oems.
5▲ +4wk of 2026-07-20commit 5.0att 14.0L5: attention 14.0 (+13.0 wow) > commitment 5.0 (+4.0 wow) — hype concentrated, commitment still light.
Hiring focus (21d): other (164)
Forward read · hypothesis
L5 (layer): leading axes (A2 discussion + demand) averaged 2.8 per week recently. Pooled cross-correlation suggests product launch count tracks ~2 weeks behind (β=0.28, r=0.41, n=24; fits loosely). Direction: up. Projection ≈ 0.76 (last actual: 0). Confidence 17% — held as hypothesis until ≥4/5 sample-out scored runs confirm.
See ranked L5 suppliers →Q: Is L5 Training & Inference Activity activity expected to keep moving in the next 2 weeks?
A: Projection points rising over the next 2 weeks at 17% confidence (hypothesis — sample-out hit-rate not yet established). Today's commitment 5.0 vs attention 14.0 (week of 2026-07-20). Industry-research read — no buy/sell call.
L6 Foundation Models Activity
L6Weekly hiring + business signal volume across foundation models companies — frontier & open-weights labs, robotics foundation models.
2▼ -14wk of 2026-07-13commit 1.0att 4.0L6: attention 4.0 (+2.0 wow) > commitment 1.0 (-16.0 wow) — hype concentrated, commitment still light.
Hiring focus (21d): other (33)
Forward read · hypothesis
L6 (layer): leading axes (A2 discussion + demand) averaged 0.0 per week recently. Pooled cross-correlation suggests product launch count tracks ~4 weeks behind (β=-0.02, r=-0.12, n=22; fits loosely). Direction: flat. Projection ≈ 0.00 (last actual: 0). Confidence 1% — held as hypothesis until ≥4/5 sample-out scored runs confirm.
See ranked L6 suppliers →Q: Is L6 Foundation Models Activity activity expected to keep moving in the next 4 weeks?
A: Projection points roughly flat over the next 4 weeks at 1% confidence (hypothesis — sample-out hit-rate not yet established). Today's commitment 1.0 vs attention 4.0 (week of 2026-07-13). Industry-research read — no buy/sell call.
L7 Middleware Activity
L7Weekly hiring + business signal volume across middleware companies — vector dbs, agent frameworks & mcp, eval & observability, ai gateways, data+ai platforms.
3▲ +2wk of 2026-07-06commit 1.0att 1.0L7: commitment 1.0 (-10.0 wow) ≈ attention 1.0 (±0.0 wow) — talk and money moving together.
Forward read · hypothesis
L7 (layer): leading axes (A2 discussion + demand) averaged 5.3 per week recently. Pooled cross-correlation suggests product launch count tracks ~2 weeks behind (β=-0.0057, r=-0.10, n=24; fits loosely). Direction: flat. Projection ≈ -0.03 (last actual: 0). Confidence 1% — held as hypothesis until ≥4/5 sample-out scored runs confirm.
See ranked L7 suppliers →Q: Is L7 Middleware Activity activity expected to keep moving in the next 2 weeks?
A: Projection points roughly flat over the next 2 weeks at 1% confidence (hypothesis — sample-out hit-rate not yet established). Today's commitment 1.0 vs attention 1.0 (week of 2026-07-06). Industry-research read — no buy/sell call.
L8 Applications Activity
L8Weekly hiring + business signal volume across applications companies — coding tools, enterprise adoption, vertical apps, event-anchored entities.
5▼ -1wk of 2026-07-13commit 1.0att 36.0L8: attention 36.0 (+31.0 wow) > commitment 1.0 (-5.0 wow) — hype concentrated, commitment still light.
Hiring focus (21d): other (377)
Forward read · hypothesis
L8 (layer): leading axes (A2 discussion + demand) averaged 0.3 per week recently. Pooled cross-correlation suggests product launch count tracks ~6 weeks behind (β=-0.0055, r=-0.16, n=20; fits loosely). Direction: flat. Projection ≈ -0.00 (last actual: 0). Confidence 3% — held as hypothesis until ≥4/5 sample-out scored runs confirm.
See ranked L8 suppliers →Q: Is L8 Applications Activity activity expected to keep moving in the next 6 weeks?
A: Projection points roughly flat over the next 6 weeks at 3% confidence (hypothesis — sample-out hit-rate not yet established). Today's commitment 1.0 vs attention 36.0 (week of 2026-07-13). Industry-research read — no buy/sell call.
Demand Pressure
Weekly end-user demand-signal volume — what people are searching, asking, and pricing across AI infrastructure.
See active demand-driven insights →1▼ -10wk of 2026-07-20